Does the Minimum Drinking Age Reduce or Delay Traffic Mortality? Evidence from a Cohort-Based Analysis
Does the Minimum Drinking Age Reduce or Delay Traffic Mortality? Evidence from a Cohort-Based Analysis
Tuesday, June 24, 2014: 3:20 PM
Waite Phillips 103 (Waite Phillips Hall)
Previous research has shown that trac mortality increases sharply at the minimum legal
drinking age (MLDA) of 21. However, it is possible that individuals adapts to alcohol access
over time, making dicult to extrapolate from this immediate increase to the aggregate e ect
of a change in the MLDA. It is, for example, possible that individuals drink most heavily
immediately after they gain legal access and drink less as the novelty of alcohol wears o . If
this is the case, lowering the MLDA to 18 would increase drinking among 18 year-olds, but
decrease it among 21 year-olds. To test for adaptation e ects, I compare the age-pro les of
trac mortality of cohorts who were allowed to drink at age 18 with that of cohorts who
could not legally drink until age 21. My results suggest that increasing the MLDA from 18
to 21 led to a signi cant decrease in trac mortality among 18 year-olds, but not among
19 and 20 year-olds, which is consistent with adaptation to alcohol. I do not, however, nd
evidence for an o setting increase in mortality of 21-23 year-olds, and nd that moving the
MLDA to 21 caused a reduction in the aggregate trac mortality of 18-23 year-olds.
drinking age (MLDA) of 21. However, it is possible that individuals adapts to alcohol access
over time, making dicult to extrapolate from this immediate increase to the aggregate e ect
of a change in the MLDA. It is, for example, possible that individuals drink most heavily
immediately after they gain legal access and drink less as the novelty of alcohol wears o . If
this is the case, lowering the MLDA to 18 would increase drinking among 18 year-olds, but
decrease it among 21 year-olds. To test for adaptation e ects, I compare the age-pro les of
trac mortality of cohorts who were allowed to drink at age 18 with that of cohorts who
could not legally drink until age 21. My results suggest that increasing the MLDA from 18
to 21 led to a signi cant decrease in trac mortality among 18 year-olds, but not among
19 and 20 year-olds, which is consistent with adaptation to alcohol. I do not, however, nd
evidence for an o setting increase in mortality of 21-23 year-olds, and nd that moving the
MLDA to 21 caused a reduction in the aggregate trac mortality of 18-23 year-olds.