Projected Job Growth under the Affordable Care Act and Strategies to Ensure Adequate Supply

The health care industry has been an engine of job growth in the U.S. economy over the last few decades. The Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) will both expand the need for health workers to provide services to the millions of people who will gain health insurance and also change the mix of health care job opportunities due to new financial incentives to foster the growth of team-based care models, care and outside institutions. New job opportunities from entry-level positions to highly-trained professions may emerge in the health care industry for many Americans. This study identifies the jobs most likely to grow rapidly due to the ACA. We project future job opportunities using the ARCOLA microsimulation model (to predict insurance enrollment and health care utilization, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Industry-Occupation matrices and projections. To analyze the pipeline of workers, we used the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), developed by the U.S. Department of Education, which identifies completed postsecondary education programs in the U.S. that receive any federal funding. We find that one third of projected growth for registered nurses, health practitioner support technicians, medical assistants, medical secretaries, diagnostic technicians, pharmacy technicians, pharmacists, and EMTs/paramedics are likely to be the result from demand changes under ACA. We then examine gaps in supply and the training and policy needs to fill those gaps.