Discrete choice experiment of the demand for e-cigarettes

E-cigarettes are a new but rapidly growing product that may complement or substitute for use of tobacco cigarettes. Regulators in the U.S. and worldwide are considering whether they should regulate e-cigarettes, but there is no empirical knowledge base on which to make regulatory decisions. E-cigarettes may improve the health of smokers if smokers substitute to e-cigarettes, a healthier option. On the other hand, e-cigarettes might worsen health if smokers use e-cigarettes to get around smoking bans and thus reduce their desire to quit smoking and/or if individuals start smoking e-cigarettes and segue to tobacco products.

We conduct an online discrete choice experiment of the demand for e-cigarettes as substitutes or complements to tobacco cigarettes. We focus on the demand as a function of three key attributes: 1) the ability to smoke e-cigarettes in places in which tobacco cigarettes are banned; 2) the fact that e-cigarettes do not have as much toxins and thus, are less harmful to health; and 3) e-cigarettes may help smokers quit the use of harmful tobacco products. We provide alternative scenarios varying each attribute and then request smokers and recent non-smoking adults make choices over buying cigarettes, e-cigarettes and a non-cigarette related alternative. We produce information on the demand for e-cigarettes that will be useful for regulation of e-cigarettes. Note that e-cigarettes are so new to the market that there is little to no secondary data that would allow study of these factors.