Childhood vaccine prices in the US public sector: 1996-2012

Vaccine prices show a substantial increasing trend over the last few decades.  It is, however, unclear what main factors drive the rise.  Previous studies that evaluated the price trend do not reflect recent changes to the immunization schedule and the variables included were limited. This paper considers a wide range of factors and investigates the determinants of the price changes in childhood vaccines.  Using the pediatric vaccine purchase prices from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during 1996 - 2012, we examine how the prices were affected by vaccine characteristics (e.g., dose schedules, active or inactive vaccines), substitute products (e.g. combined vaccines versus single vaccines), market structures, regulation or policy changes and other factors that influence demand and supply. A regression analysis is employed to determine the drivers of pediatric vaccine prices.  The model is also used to predict future prices given potential changes in explanatory variables.  The paper contributes to the understanding of the effects of market competition and regulatory policies on pediatric vaccine prices. It also has important implication for the cost of providing prevention care at the federal and state levels.