Smoking, Genes, and Health: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

Genetic understanding of smoking is advancing rapidly. Three recent studies discovered variants in nicotinic receptor genes that impact measured smoking behavior. We document associations between these variants and multiple smoking and health outcomes available in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Although these variants are associated with relatively modest differences in measures of past smoking intensity, we find substantial effects on later-life health and mortality outcomes. To understand this set of reduced-form patterns, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of smoking, health, and mortality that explicitly incorporates genetic heterogeneity. Structural estimates will allow us to understand the mechanisms by which these genes operate (preferences v.s. addiction dynamics), shedding light on how policies differentially affect individuals by genotype. The estimated model will permit counterfactual simulations assessing the consequences of genetic testing interventions that provide individuals with more information about their predisposition for addiction