Using certainty and celerity of sanction to produce specific deterrence: Insights from a large-scale implementation of the 24/7 Sobriety Program

The ability to deter is based on the certainty, celerity, and severity of the sanction for a violation.  Most observational studies in economics focus on the latter since it has traditionally been the easiest element for policymakers to manipulate and researchers to measure. However, a number of studies in controlled settings find that increasing certainty and celerity of a sanction conditional upon a violation has more of a deterrent effect than increasing the severity of the sanction. Detecting and sanctioning every violation of a rule is difficult, but improvements in monitoring technologies are making the former more likely—especially in criminal justice settings. The latter, however, is largely a public management issue.  In the context of the U.S. legal system, there is no guarantee that a detected violation will lead to a sanction.  If there is a sanction, there can be significant delays. This has made it difficult for researchers to examine the role of certainty and celerity in real-world settings. This paper helps fill this gap by evaluating a large-scale effort to increase the certainty and celerity of sanction while keeping severity low: South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Program (hereinafter 24/7).  Beginning in 2005, South Dakota’s 24/7 pilot targeted those rearrested for drunk driving and mandated that as a condition of bond offenders must abstain from alcohol and travel to the county jail and blow into a breathalyzer once in the morning and once at night every day.  Those testing positive for alcohol or missing a test were immediately jailed, typically for a day or two.  The program expanded geographically as anecdotes about the program’s success spread beyond the pilot counties.  The program also expanded with respect to eligible offenses and alcohol detection technologies.  From 2005 through 2014, approximately 30,000 unique South Dakotans in 24/7 accumulated more than 5 million days without a detected alcohol violation.  This is remarkable coverage for a state with approximately 650,000 adults. Our analysis is based on the universe of individuals who were arrested for a repeat drunk driving offense in South Dakota from 2000 to 2012.  We obtained the complete criminal history information for these individuals and determined whether or not they participated in 24/7.  Using 24/7 availability in a county as an instrument for participation, results from our IV models show that 24/7 participation has a dramatic effect on time to next arrest. But the significance of these results extend beyond how we address drunk driving; they have implications for the future of criminal justice policies.  At a time when there seems to be growing bipartisan support for reducing reliance on long prison sentences to address nonviolent crime, we must acknowledge that this will increase reliance on probation and other forms of community supervision.  Advances in technology will continue to make it easier and cheaper to monitor and detect violations (e.g., substance use, place-based restrictions, curfews, interactions with others under community supervision), but the ability to deter violations depends on how this information is used.