Unexpected Election Results and Birth Outcomes

We study the impact of unexpected emotional shocks on birth health outcomes, paying specific attention to the election in 2016. We will use individual level Texas birth records (through 2017, which will be released in the spring of 2019) and assign treatment by matching precinct level voting results to the geo-coordinates of the mother’s residence and also by using predictive models of voting behavior based on mother demographics. We will then estimate a difference in difference analysis between election years 2016, 2012, 2008, and 2004 to ascertain if 2016 election had distinct effects on birth outcomes and if these were more prominent among a particular party. We expect to find the 2016 general elections negatively affected outcomes for children of Democrats and positively affected outcomes for children of Republicans.

Our study will contribute and draw on established literature investigating the effects of in-utero shocks on birth outcomes and infant health (Almond and Currie 2011, Almond and Mazumder 2011, Currie and Schwandt 2015, Currie et al. 2018). Mental stress in particular is a form of fetal shock and can have negative effects on the health of children (Almond et al. 2015, Duncan, Mansour, and Rees 2017).

A recent first difference analysis (Krieger et al. 2018) shows that pre-term birth rates increased in New York City after the 2017 presidential inauguration. Our paper will expand on this analysis by using a difference-in-differences approach and adding granularity and directionality to the treatment.

This study also provides a unique opportunity to study a symmetric shock, where some (Trump) voters experienced an unexpected positive shock and some (Clinton) voters experienced an unexpected negative shock. No previous work has assessed such a shock to ascertain if the effect is also symmetric.

These results could inform future reallocations of public funding for women's health, infant/toddler services, family planning, and prenatal care. Understanding the level of stress can lead to the development of strategies to help parents mitigate the stress to the child, thereby minimizing the long-lasting effect of stress after birth, reducing the need for medical and social services.

References.

Almond, Douglas, and Bhashkar Mazumder. (2011). “Health Capital and the Prenatal Environment: The Effect of Ramadan Observance During Pregnancy.” AEJ: Applied 3(4): 56-85

Almond, Douglas, and Janet Currie. (2011). “Killing Me Softly: The Fetal Origins Hypothesis.” JEP 25(3): 153-72.

Currie, Janetand Hannes Schwandt. (2015). “The 9/11 Dust Cloud and Pregnancy Outcomes: A Reconsideration.” JHR 51(4): 805-831

Currie, Janet, Michael Mueller Smith, and Maya Rossin-Slater. (2018). “Violence while in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes.” NBER WP #24802.

Duncan, Brian, Hani Mansour, and Daniel I. Rees. (2017). “It's Just a Game: The Super Bowl and Low Birth Weight.” JHR 52(4): 946-978.

Krieger, Nancy, Mary Huynh, Wenhui Li, Pamela D Waterman, and Gretchen Van Wye. (2018). “Severe sociopolitical stressors and preterm births in New York City: 1 September 2015 to 31 August 2017.” J Epidemiol Community Health, forthcoming.