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Emerging Trends in the Relative Supply and Demand of Health Professionals in the U.S. with a Focus on Allied Health
Trends in wages and number employed are rarely analyzed for most health related occupations beyond major occupations such as Medical Doctors, Nurses, pharmacists and dentists. Understanding trends in wages and number employed across broad sets of health occupations provides insight for planning in hiring as well as for educational programs related to those occupations. This study examined trends between 2010 to 2014 in the number employed and in wage rates across all health care related occupational categories available from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) data relative to the employment and wages of Medical Doctors. A total of 93 occupations were categorized into 19 groups, and wage rates and number employed of each merged occupational category were examined across time. Based on observed relative changes in wages and employment, demand and supply shifts within occupations relative to Medical Doctors were identified.
In general, over the past five years, a period of economic recovery, there was a notable increase in the number of employed workers in health care related occupations. At the same time there were general declines in the level of wages among health care occupations. Relative to Medical Doctors, there was clear evidence of a reduction in the relative supply of allied health workers as a group. Specifically, across all Allied healthcare workers, there was an increase in relative wages (2.28%) and a decline in relative employment (-3.64%). Meanwhile, many of the specific allied healthcare occupations tended to show signs of demand exceeding supply relative to Medical Doctors. The majority of the allied healthcare occupations (9 out of 12 categories) saw an increase in their relative annual wage. Of them, all three therapist groups (occupational therapists, physical therapists, and other therapists), as well as pharmacy technicians, and occupational health specialists also experienced a relative increase in the number employed, which is evidence of an increase in the relative demand that outpaced any changes in the relative supply. Social workers, emergency medical technicians or paramedics, assistants not classified elsewhere, and technicians not classified elsewhere experienced an increase in relative wage and a decrease in relative employment, which is consistent with a backward shift in supply relative to medical doctors. In addition, declines in both the relative annual wages and the numbers employed of nursing aides and counselors were observed, which is consistent with a reduction in relative demand. Of 19 broad occupational categories, Pharmacists, Physician Assistants, and Occupational and Physical Therapists have been experiencing a growth in demand relative to Medical Doctors as evidenced by a growth in relative wages and relative employment. These findings provide a reference for strategic planning related to the utilization of various health care occupations moving forwards as well as planning among related postsecondary educational programs. For example, occupations with strong increases in wages and number employed are likely to be good areas for programs to expand.