Health Policy Modeling: Research and Methods Needed to Evaluate Emerging Supply-Side Policies

Many of the most active heath policy and economic questions concern how the ”supply side” of the health economy would respond to changes in the payer and policy environment. We explore the most pressing policy questions that could be answered by supply modeling/simulations including: what influences supply of physicians, other health care providers, and health care capital; what would be the effects of payment and delivery reform at scale; how current prices paid for professional and institutional services drive supply; and how current “suppliers” (e.g. hospital chains, insurers) think about responding to changing demand and payment policies. We also explore gaps in in research needed to support policy modeling, existing/related model efforts used by private and advocacy organizations, and the data available to support supply-side models and policy simulations.