The Effects of Tobacco Policy on Youth Smoking and Physical Activity

A major goal of tobacco control policies is to improve the health of teenagers by affecting their smoking behavior. Past economic research suggests these policies reduce youth smoking, although the effect may have waned in recent years. However, little is known about the spillover effects these policies may have on other health behaviors in teenagers, and the limited existing work has focused on obesity. Our research is the first to examine the effects of tobacco policies on teenagers’ physical activity. Both smoking and exercise behaviors are habitual and likely formed during adolescence, making this age group of particular interest. Moreover, the benefits of physical activity for teenagers are well established and include building healthy bones and muscles, controlling weight, reducing anxiety/stress and increasing self-esteem. The spillover effects of tobacco policies on teenagers’ physical activity therefore have strong implications for the efficacy of these policies in improving overall health.

Our research builds on the conceptual framework of Conway and Niles (2017), which reveals the theoretically ambiguous spillover effects of tobacco policies on adult exercise. A tax-induced reduction in smoking, for example, may increase one’s ability to exercise making exercising more desirable than before. Likewise, exercise and smoking may both be considered strategies for weight management, such that increased exercise is a preventive measure against the weight gain associated with reduced smoking. Conversely, if people believe that physical activity reduces some of the ill effects of smoking, then they may use physical activity as a way to compensate for the harms caused by smoking. Finally, an increase in the cost of cigarettes could have income effects. Examining teenagers’ physical activity introduces two new challenges. One is that required physical education classes mean that exercise may not always be voluntary. The second is the heightened ability to join a sports team, which likely facilitates physical activity but may serve other purposes for the teen (e.g., social).

Our empirical analyses address these two challenges by investigating teenagers’ participation in Physical Education classes and sports teams, as well as their smoking and exercise behaviors. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the 1991 to 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), combined with state-level policies and controls, our research is the first to provide evidence on how tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoking bans and anti-tobacco spending, affect these physical activity behaviors in adolescents. This time period is of particular relevance as it includes substantial changes in cigarette taxes and smoking bans, as well as the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) of 1998 that resulted in funds targeted to preventing new smokers. Our preliminary smoking results agree with past work; increased cigarette taxes has a negative effect on smoking but the effect is fairly weak in recent years. Results for spillover effects suggest that increased cigarette taxes have offsetting effects on two key conduits for teen physical activity -- an increase in sports team membership but a decrease in days of Physical Education. On net, cigarette taxes appear to have a weakly negative effect on teen physical activity.